by: Denny JA *)
“Take Jokowi as an example. Look at the determination. The vision. His assertiveness when wanting to implement the UU Cipta Kerja (Job Creation Law). He did not waver even though the law was opposed by many parties. He continued despite the protests for days, weeks, volumes, in many cities.”
“Look at the results now. Indonesia is increasingly competitive. Investment is growing because the business process is getting easier. Job opportunities are increasingly open.”
“The Indonesian economy is progressing, moving out of what is called a country that is stagnant in its growth status at the middle income level. Middle Income Trap.”
“Look at the results now. Those who used to completely oppose the UU Cipta Kerja enjoyed good results from the law.”
“Jokowi is an example of a strong leader who grows the economy. It is being a case, which is studied in many leadership classes. He was also quoted by many world institutions when describing the determination and vision of a leader.”
What I wrote above is the best case scenario. Of course the future does not consist of just one scenario. UU Cipta Kerja could also end badly for Jokowi.
But isn’t a visionary leader one who takes risks. It is enough for Jokowi to hear the World Bank’s views. According to the World Bank, UU Cipta Kerja makes Indonesia more competitive. Indonesia’s economic recovery will be faster.(1)
-000-
UU Cipta Kerja will be easier for us to understand by first understanding the two concepts and the risks. First: Middle Income Trap. Secondly what I call Developmental Choice.
Middle Income Trap is a term for a country that is stagnating with economic growth. The World Bank provides a measure. This is for a country that is stagnant with GNP per capita at the level: 1000-12,000 USD. (2)
Examples of countries that are stagnant at this level are Brazil, South Africa. Indonesia is also at this level.
Whatever the government does in that country (Middle Income Trap category), GNP per capita remains stagnant at the level of 1000-12,000 USD. All the excess of the state became redundant. The country’s natural resources, demographic bonus, or political stability are not optimal.
What is the cause of the middle income trap? The entire business world in the country is less competitive. Bureaucracy is convoluted to build a business. Illegal fees are rampant. Labor rules that scare investment. Unstable politics. Etc.
There needs a comprehensive refresher, reforms in all dimensions to make the investment and business process easy and simple. This is the mindset behind the “catch-up” Omnibus Law of the UU Cipta Kerja.
Meanwhile, developmental choice is a term that I made myself to describe a leader’s policy choice. That’s a policy that makes economic development, ease of investment, economic progress as commander.
Of course, this policy choice has risks. Noise easy to catch policy makers is reduced. As a result, the role of the KPK is weakened.(3)
Labor regulations are made more attractive to investment. The severance pay is reduced.
Environmental regulations have also been made more moderate in order to make business permits more efficient.
Naturally, leaders with the vision of “developmental choice” will receive a lot of criticism and opponents in the fields of handling corruption, the environment, labor, as well as democracy activists.
In the era of his second administration, it seems that Jokowi has chosen a leadership style and his policies. He doesn’t want to be remembered as a mediocre leader. Jokowi wants to lay a solid foundation to get out of the Middle Income Trap through the Omnibus Law on the UU Cipta Kerja.
All options certainly carry risks.
-000-
Was it wrong or true that Jokowi took the policy to separate from the “Middle Income Trap” with all the risks? Was it wrong or true that Jokowi took the “Developmental Choice with all its consequences?”
This is the fun of history. Whether or not Jokowi is right will be determined in the future. As long as no articles in the constitution are violated, these are only policy choices.
Jokowi has a mandate to make policies. He is the legally elected president. He was also supported by the majority of the DPR.
This UU Cipta Kerja is at stake for its legacy. If Jokowi steps down, issues a Perppu for the UU Cipta Kerja, he will be remembered as a leader who bowed to pressure, with a vague policy vision.
Jokowi will never make unpopular policies again even though they are based on a strong vision. The public will note Jokowi bowing to pressure.
Jokowi’s only option at this time to build a legacy is to be unanimous about that policy choice. Continue with the UU Cipta Kerja with a note.
Hearing all academic objections to the various omnibus law clusters. Accommodation objections are still relevant and can. The input accommodation is in various implementing rules.
In history, we have seen so many leaders adopt unpopular policies but with good results. When Abraham Lincoln abolished slavery, his policies were strongly opposed by part of the public. In fact, this contributed to triggering civil war in the United States.
But now Abraham Lincoln is remembered as the best president the United States has ever had. A president who dares to take risks for a vision.
Of course, we don’t equate this UU Cipta Kerja Omnibus Law with the eradication of Lincoln era tantrums. It is only for illustration that even a good vision, such as the abolition of slavery, can be opposed by many people.
If the Omnibus Law of the UU Cipta Kerja is successfully defended by Jokowi, perfected by its implementing regulations, and results in economic progress, Indonesia is proven to have emerged from the “Middle Income Trap,” history will record Jokowi as the Strong Leader Who Grows the Economy.
What if the Job Creation Law turns out to be bad? The President and the DPR election results in 2024 will later revise it. As simple as that!
*) social observer
